Case for Capturing RFNBO Value Now – White Paper published
Ren-Gas Market Intelligence has published a new white paper on the rapidly maturing European RFNBO (Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin) market and the concrete opportunities it presents for early movers.
In 2025, the market has entered a decisive phase. Under RED III, Member States are converting EU targets into binding national transport sub-quotas backed by substantial penalties. By 2030, road transport RFNBO demand is expected to exceed 30 TWh annually. In key markets such as Germany, regulatory design already implies values well above 600 EUR/MWh.
With supply growth lagging mandated demand, a tightening compliance-driven market is emerging — creating a clear window in 2026 to secure long-term RFNBO volumes, including e-methane offtakes.
Download the white paper “Case for Capturing RFNBO Value Now”
Our new white paper provides:
- An update on RFNBO mandates across Europe and what they mean for market participants
- A closer look at Germany’s role in price formation across Europe
- An example calculation illustrating how regulatory mechanisms could drive e-methane values in German road transport to well over ~600 EUR/MWh by 2030
Why e-methane — and why now
In a rapidly tightening regulated market, timing is everything. E-methane is a ready RFNBO pathway: proven technology, existing transport infrastructure, and functioning business models to move RFNBO volumes to market quickly. With 2026 shaping up as a pivotal contracting year, energy companies and obligated parties can act now to:
- secure certified RFNBO e-methane offtakes
- lock in long-term supply
- capture the high market value implied by 2030 compliance requirements
For more information or to discuss e-methane offtake opportunities, please contact:
Ilkka Heikinniemi, Head of Sales | 📧 ilkka.heikinniemi@ren-gas.com | 🔗 LinkedIn